Kalshi currently has Republicans favored to win the Senate, 56% to 44%.
The top post in the summary gives a solid explanation for why the market is leaning that way. About two months ago, I came to a similar estimate to where Kalshi is now.
Here’s the basic math of that summary using binomial distribution: looking at the market odds for the Democrats’ five most likely pickup opportunities — North Carolina (75%), Maine (70%), Ohio (55%), and Texas (45%) — Democrats would likely need to win 4 out of those 5 races to take control. The combined probability of that happening works out to roughly 33%.
When I expanded the analysis to include a broader set of competitive states, I estimated Democratic odds closer to 45%, which is essentially where Kalshi is trading now.
RCP continues to have Trump's approval average the same at 40.6.
Silver Bulletin had a dip down to 37.6%. We need a couple more weeks to know if that's an actual change or just noise.
For as much as Dems feel that the GOP will inevitably lose the Senate, from my POV it looks like Dems have lost momentum in their argument.