In Reply to: You can throw as much math as you want at it posted by blindness on May 11, 2026 at 16:06:56
>A bunch of people betting on what other people will do.
Exactly!
At a basic level, people who are financially invested in predicting an outcome tend to be better forecasters than surveys of people with no stake in the result.
That is why prediction markets like Kalshi are often considered more accurate under the conditions I mentioned earlier.
There are roughly two decades of research supporting the idea that prediction markets can outperform traditional polling and expert opinion in certain environments.
Before dismissing the concept, consider why incentives and attention might produce better data than surveying people who may not care, may not follow the issue closely, or may answer casually. That question is actually central to a large amount of current research at top universities and research institutions.
The idea is that the collective who bet have many different viewpoints they have explored vs those who have been randomly selected to fill out a survey. You get a better answer from people who care.
You asked me for an explanation, that's the most basic I can make it for you.