In Reply to: Re: You can throw as much math as you want at it posted by confused442 on May 11, 2026 at 16:19:14
Kalshi has a predictive power? My question was supposed to be the starting point of a discussion, which you immediately turned into acrimonious bullsh*t because, frankly, that's pretty much the only way you are able to react to people who choose to approach a question differently?
I am not interested in the question of what the best tools of prediction are, whatever combination you please that involves "prediction markets" and polls or whatever. What I am interested in is reliability (not to be confused with 100% accuracy, btw, before you trail off in that direction) and I don't think betting markets are a reliable tool. As much as it involves people who introduce varying amounts of skin in the game, there is no guarantee that any of them have the actual tools and the global understanding of how politics of elections to be able to make an informed decision. Add to that a bunch of tech bros and get rich wannabes who are there to just place a bet for whatever reason, and what you get at the end is not a council of experts on American electoral politics that you imagine, but literally, a bunch of people who are willing to bet some money on some proposition.
That may impress you. It does not impress me. And that is where I stand personally. And that's my f*cking position on fu*cking betting markets. If you can't respect that as a choice and move on, then f*ck you.
If you think that's dunning kruger and I'm f@cking stupid and I don't believe in science, then also f*ck you.
May I remind you that you started this fight, so you had the obligation to lay out why you think what makes betting markets so great at poredicting sh*t so that there could hav been a conversation. It should not have taken this long to get here.
But you are, and I don't take statements like this lightly, truly an a$$hole, so t absolutely had to play out this way. What a waste of everyone's time, including you, our resident genius of everything he has read something about.