Re: What's the science behind the prediction markets?


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Posted by confused442 on May 11, 2026 at 12:35:17

In Reply to: What's the science behind the prediction markets? posted by blindness on May 11, 2026 at 12:23:04

There is a large amount of research supporting that combining multiple methods (prediction-markets + polls + fundamentals models) are the best predictors of elections.

Prediction markets are useful real-time signals, especially when polls are sparse

Polls/prediction markets are what you use if you want a data based approach to predicting an election rather than working off of vibes.


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