What's the science behind the prediction markets?

[ Follow Ups ] [ Post Follow Up ] [ UCLA Open Forum ]

Posted by blindness on May 11, 2026 at 12:23:04

In Reply to: dunning kruger posted by confused442 on May 11, 2026 at 12:10:37

walk me through how Kalshi has an insight as to how people will vote in November at the macro level. What is the data that Kalshi is analyzing?

Follow Ups:

Re: What's the science behind the prediction markets? confused442 12:35:17 05/11/26 (25)
- That doesn't answer the question blindness 12:42:46 05/11/26 (24)
  - And Prediction markets are increasingly gamified Dr.J 13:46:04 05/11/26 (13)
    - Re: And Prediction markets are increasingly gamified confused442 15:31:46 05/11/26 (12)
      - Re: And Prediction markets are increasingly gamified Dr.J 15:40:05 05/11/26 (11)
        
        Re: And Prediction markets are increasingly gamified confused442 15:52:20 05/11/26 (10)
        
        SP 500 is a package of stocks and funds blindness 16:09:59 05/11/26 (5)
        
        Re: SP 500 is a package of stocks and funds confused442 16:25:20 05/11/26 (3)
        
        No, you miserable ignoramus they are not regulated the same Dr.J 16:27:49 05/11/26 (2)
        
        Re: No, you miserable ignoramus they are not regulated the same confused442 16:34:19 05/11/26 (1)
        
        You're a pathetic dissembling fraud running from the point Dr.J 16:45:45 05/11/26 (0)
        
        Dude is totally off the rails* Dr.J 16:22:43 05/11/26 (0)
        
        The fact that you cannot distinguish S&P from gambling is... Dr.J 16:02:35 05/11/26 (3)
        
        Re: The fact that you cannot distinguish S&P from gambling is... confused442 16:11:08 05/11/26 (2)
        
        Praytell, what share of an actual financial entity out there blindness 16:24:16 05/11/26 (0)
        
        Guy who said a few trenches are same as Maginot line... Dr.J 16:22:04 05/11/26 (0)
  - Re: That doesn't answer the question confused442 12:51:44 05/11/26 (9)
    - Yeah, your time is best used for hurling drive by insults blindness 13:08:49 05/11/26 (8)
      - Re: Yeah, your time is best used for hurling drive by insults confused442 15:18:30 05/11/26 (7)
        
        Still wasting your time on insults, eh? blindness 15:40:17 05/11/26 (5)
        
        Re: Still wasting your time on insults, eh? confused442 15:58:41 05/11/26 (3)
        
        You can throw as much math as you want at it blindness 16:06:56 05/11/26 (2)
        
        Re: You can throw as much math as you want at it confused442 16:19:14 05/11/26 (1)
        
        So can we agree that I understand the basics of why you think blindness 16:43:55 05/11/26 (0)
        
        confused is Schrödinger's teacher... Dr.J 15:44:30 05/11/26 (0)
        
        For all your galaxy brain you still failed to answer the question Dr.J 15:36:44 05/11/26 (0)

Post a Followup