In Reply to: Re: And Prediction markets are increasingly gamified posted by confused442 on May 11, 2026 at 15:52:20
Masses of people trading on it determines the value it's going to have. That's not the case with betting apps. Betting that the US will drop a nuke on Iran doesn't make the US drop a nuke on Iran. These are two fundamentally different types of gambles actions.
If everyone bet on, I dunno, black 27 at the roulette table, it doesn't mean black 27 will win.
Having a stake at being correct is not a path to being correct. All you're measuring here is what people *think* will be the case and how certain they are at that. There are 5 millionish Kalshi users across the globe on a monthly basis. You're taking their predictions as something reliable wrt how 190 million registered voters will vote 6 months from now?
Forgodssakes.