I have seen many articles outlining options Trump has in Iran. This morning I was listening to a podcast discussing it.
Virtually every one of them lists one of his options as some version of the status quo. Not quite full-on war, but quite a bit of exchange of fire. In the meantime the Strait is basically closed, as both the US and Iran keep it blocked.
Today around 10 ships are passing through the Strait. Before the war, an average of 138 ships per day were passing through.
For the most part reporting is ignoring the ice berg looming ahead. Right now most countries are functioning by using up oil reserves. Right now the US can keep drawing on the Strategic Oil Reserve for another 1-2 months.
Other countries are in a similar situation. Australia has 20-30 days of reserves. India has already got virtually no reserves and is getting expensive oil on the spot market. Germany and France are running low.
Some time in the next two months, a number of major countries are going to start purchasing quite a bit more oil on the open market as their reserves dry up. When they do, the price of oil is going to spike BY A LOT. This won't be oil prices responding to Trump's announcements. It will be a fixed supply and increased demand.
I don't know how high prices will get, but $150 to $200 doesn't seem out of the question.
So if Trump keeps sailing the Titanic on the current course, that iceberg on the horizon keeps getting closer. The status quo is only a viable option if you ignore what looms on the horizon.