In Reply to: The Math Could Be Better Than Some Here Think posted by Dr.Bruin on February 04, 2026 at 19:44:00
I’m having a hard time seeing UCLA getting into the tournament if things play out the way you described. Right now, they’re sitting at #43 in the NET, and if they were to go 3–5 over the final eight games, it seems likely that number would slip. I’m not sure how far, but even a modest drop probably puts them somewhere in the high 40s.
Most projections have the Big Ten sending around 10 teams to the tournament, but if UCLA finishes 3–5 and the teams behind them perform as expected, that would likely place them around 10th in the conference at best, which feels like a difficult position to be in.
On the North Carolina comparison, I’m not sure it’s the best benchmark. Last year’s North Carolina bid was widely viewed as an exception rather than a standard and drew significant scrutiny. It’s also worth noting that the tournament committee president that year was North Carolina’s athletic director, which became part of the broader discussion around that decision. Even so, North Carolina still had a stronger NET at #38 than where UCLA will be sitting.
From my perspective, three additional wins probably aren’t enough. Four might keep them in the conversation, but still firmly on the bubble. My sense is they likely need five wins to feel reasonably safe, regardless of which games those are.
Things do seem to fluctuate from year to year. Recently, conference tournaments don’t appear to matter as much, with committee members often saying their brackets were mostly finalized beforehand. At times, that rationale feels applied unevenly.