An example of bad poll analysis


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Posted by mh on May 06, 2026 at 10:10:38

This is from the Washington Post:

"Taken together, this is obviously a worrying poll for Trump and any Republican hoping to win this November.

"But we were particularly interested in another dynamic we have seen across surveys lately— support for Democrats in the upcoming midterms is not keeping pace with the growing number of voters who say they do not approve of the job the president is doing. One would think if a voter was willing to tell a pollster they disapproved of the Republicanpresident, they would be more likely to support Democrats in the upcoming election.

"But what Scott Clement, The Post’s standout polling director, discovered is that the perception that Democrats are “too liberal” is hurting the party’s performance when pollsters ask whether they will support Democrats in 2026, creating a gap between that figure and Trump’s sinking approval rating.
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So it sounds like Democrats need to be more centrist to appeal to voters who don't approve of Trump, but aren't ready to vote for Democrats. However, this is bad analysis.

G. Elliott Morris looked closer at this group of voters, the ones who disapprove of Trump buy don't want to vote Democratic. It turns out they are either Republicans or "Independents" who lean heavily Republican. Sure they want Democrats to be less liberal. They hate liberals.

BUT, no matter what the Democrats do, this group of voters are never going to vote for one. If you ran Ronald Reagan and put a "D" after his name, they wouldn't vote for him.

This is just another example of pundits, experts, and consultants telling Democrats to be as wishy-washy as possible to win elections. The Democrats need an entire party of Chuck Shumers.

Of course, even Chuck Shumer has been willling to shut the government down to fight for things lately. This is not a time to stand on the sidelines.


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