While so many in the US are concerned about Trump's peace talks, they are meaningless to everyone including Ukraine, Russia and the EU. The only thing that matters is what funding either side can secure.
The figures often cited for what the Biden administration “gave” Ukraine in military equipment sound enormous, much of that total reflects replacement value rather than actual cost. Large portions of the aid consisted of surplus or retired systems that were already slated for disposal. For example, an older Bradley vehicle transferred to Ukraine is often accounted for at the replacement cost of a newer XM30, inflating the headline numbers.
To put U.S. support in clearer perspective, in 2024 the United States provided Ukraine with approximately $20 billion in loans.
The new bipartisan military authorization bill, while notably light on Ukraine funding, still allocates a minimum of roughly $400 million per year despite Trump’s objections. Where the bill more clearly defies Trump is in its broader strategic posture: it maintains current U.S. troop levels in Europe and South Korea, requires congressional approval for significant troop movements, and strengthens oversight of senior military leadership removals.
The legislation also reallocates funds previously directed toward Trump’s border operations and the “Golden Dome” project to address more immediate defense needs.
On the European side, Ukraine has now secured roughly €90 billion in loans over two years from the EU. This shifts the strategic burden to Putin—forcing Russia to outlast sustained Ukrainian financing. Without this support, Ukraine likely would have exhausted its available funds this year.
Russia is increasingly drawing down its gold reserves, cutting recruitment bonuses, and facing mounting domestic pressure as inflation bites. Approximately 40% of Russians now report difficulty affording basic food expenses.
Perhaps most significantly, the EU has relaxed long-standing fiscal constraints that previously limited member-state borrowing, allowing countries to take on debt to expand their military capacity.
In this sense, Trump is partially getting what he demanded: a Europe more willing to assume responsibility for its own security. What remains unclear are the long-term and unintended consequences of this shift.
Following Trump’s order to board Venezuelan tankers, Russian tankers operating in the Atlantic have reportedly turned back, fearing similar intervention. Meanwhile, Ukraine has effectively closed the Black Sea to Russian maritime traffic, has become increasingly active in the Caspian Sea, and— for the first time this week—sank a tanker in the Mediterranean.
Russia has changed their drone/missile tactics in overwhelming large cities with constant mass infrastructure destruction. Odessa has had no electricity for over a week. By the lack of daily drones it's clear that Russia is saving up to do this to another city. They are also targeting railways.