Quad 1 wins are important, but not that important. Losing all those games to the conference powers will likely not ruin our chances to make the tournamant. Quad records are only one factor in determining NET ranks. Just as important are team metrics. The Team Value Index (TVI) is a primary, results-based component of the NCAA NET rankings, but only one of the two core components alongside "adjusted net efficiency" (Kenpom type metrics).
Here are some examples:
UCLA is #39 in the NET and #39 in Kenpom with two Quad 1 wins. (A NET ranking above 40 should be sufficient to make the tournament.) Cal and Stanford both have four Quad 1 wins, but are #58 and #68 in the NET. That's because their Kenpom ranks are #69 and #74.
St. Mary's has zero Quad 1 wins, but are #28 in the NET, a sure thing to make the tournament, because their Kenpom is #32. Saint Louis (#16 NET) and Iowa (#20 NET) have only two Quad 1 wins but #24 and #18 Kenpom.
There are seven teams with more Quad 1 wins than us, but are behind us in the NET due to our superior Kenpom than six of them:
42 Texas A&M (#35 Kenpom)
44 UCF (#49)
47 Baylor (#44)
48 TCU (#55)
54 Boise St (#51)
58 Cal (#69)
68 Stanford (#74)
So what does this all mean? It's extremely doubtful we beat Michigan, but winning the game is less important than just not being blown out with poor offensve and defensive efficiencies. The really important games are the two must win Quad 2 games (USC and @Minn).