In Reply to: Summing up, we need 4 more wins at least, IMHO (incl. B1G tourney posted by Pyperkub on February 12, 2026 at 18:06:52
It's not the number of wins that's important. It's who you beat and who you lose to. Teams shouldn't be penalized for having a tough schedule. Going back to last year, UNC was 1-13 in Quad 1 games and got in. That's why adjusted efficiency carries a lot of weight. It's how a team would fare against an average team adjusted for quality of their opponents. If we have a high efficiency it means we are theoretically better than some teams with good records but don't have a tough schedule. I gave examples in the original post. That's why one should pay more attention to the NET ranking than the outcomes of the games. If it doesn't drop after the Michigan game, that would demonstrate the importance of metrics over wins and losses.
A NET of higher than 40 will almost always get you in. The main exception was Indiana St (#29 in 2024) but they only had 14 Quad 1 and 2 games. Last season Ohio State had a NET ranking of 41 and a KenPom ranking of 39, similar to us. But they were left out because they were only 3-4 in Quad 2 games, had a bad late home blowout loss to Northwestern and a first round loss in the conference tournament. We can avoid all those factors.
All we need to do is win the remaining Quad 2 games and play well enough against the Quad 1 teams to maintain our above 40 NET. At worst we look like a #9-10 seed in the conference tournament which means we would play one of the #15-18 seeds, a likely win, and then the #7-8 seed which wouldn't be one of the conference powers.
I go back to my original point. Losing Quad 1 games will not necessarily keep us out of the tournament, but losing Quad 2 games might.