Their model gives the Dems an 82% chance to win the Senate and a 96% chance to control the House,
🕒 The latest on Trump’s approval rating
Updated November 2, 2026
Donald Trump’s approval rating recently hit an all time low of 36.3 percent. It has since rebounded about a point, and today sits at 38.4 percent. Still, with a disapproval rating of about 59 percent, Trump is ending the midterms in a far worse place than he did during his first term.
The share of Americans who strongly approve of the president is just 21 percent, compared to nearly 49 percent who strongly disapprove.
🕒 The latest on the generic ballot
Updated November 2, 2026
After hitting a new all-time high for the 2026 cycle of D +9.2, Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot has dropped slightly to D +8.9. Their support is still ticking up in our average, but unlike earlier in the year, so is support for Republicans.
We post a different version of our generic ballot average on our midterm election forecast page. It applies a likely voter adjustment, which in this case benefits Democrats — but just slightly — and moves their lead from D +8.9 to D +9.2.