In Reply to: PCE ticks up again inflation still a thing posted by russsmith on October 29, 2026 at 07:21:36
This is absurd.
Do you really believe it’s that simple? Of course there are reasons to raise interest rates gradually, following the schedule you announced to the markets a month ago.
Future rate hikes are ALREADY PRICED INTO the market. Do you really believe it’s better to shock the market rather than give it a chance to adjust?
The current Fed chair has absolutely demonstrated independence from Trump. Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the Fed has raised interest rates about a month before an election only seven times in more than a century.
Of those seven instances, only once has the Fed raised rates by as much as the 0.75 percentage points Warsh announced, despite an inflation rate that isn't particularly high by historical standards.
1930–2025: Average annual inflation of 3.2%
1950–2025: Average annual inflation of 3.5%
2021–2025: Average annual inflation of 4.4%
With inflation currently at 3.5%–3.7%, Warsh is taking a an aggressive approach to interest rates/inflation so close to an election.