Justin Wolfers the Aussie economist who has a site called Platypus Economics, says that the labor market has a LOT less momentum than we thought and if you pay attention, it's much worse. We have 2 ways of estimating jobs, the payrolls(ADP) and the employer survey(BLS). If you look at ADP it's not bad, if you look at BLS the jobs market basically fell off a cliff in Jan 2025 when Trump took over and haven't recovered since.
He's clear he doesn't think Trump is faking the numbers he just thinks it's gotten harder for BLS to estimate, because they have less people and can do less actual surveys. He also thinks as soon as the head of BLS gets through Senate confirmation, Trump will fire him for NOT lying.