In Reply to: Re: Trump posts memo on internal polls on truth social posted by russsmith on October 10, 2024 at 16:21:29
Whenever you sort a poll but a particular demographic, you start getting a very small sample size.
If you look for extremes in these small sample-size cross tabs, you will always find it. This is basic stats.
They however become more accurate when you look at the number on average of multiple polls which is why you don't actively look for particular outliers in an individual poll to make a more general comment of polling strategies as he has.
Shuster like anyone else really has no clue who will show up for this election just like every Trump election has been poorly modeled by demographics (usually being too anti-Trump).
What we do know is, of the demographics he talked about is that black and Hispanic men are not flocking to Harris as they did to Biden. That's an issue.