Generic ballot

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Posted by mh on May 09, 2026 at 12:49:58

In Reply to: What could possibly go wrong? posted by mh on May 09, 2026 at 12:30:31

Here are the averages from different aggregators:


Silver Bulletin       6.1%
Real Clear Politics   5.6%
US Polling Data       6.0%
FiftyPlusOne          5.3%

According to G. Elliott Morris, the out-of-power party typically picks up another 5% in the generic ballot between now and election day.

I don't know if this is a typical year, but if gas prices keep going up, we see gas lines from shortages, and other prices go up, this could be a worse-than-typical year for the party in power.


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