In Reply to: Poll Dancing posted by mh on May 02, 2026 at 11:22:41
We don’t need to rehash our minor disagreement over recent polling shifts. The Silver Bulletin and RCP averages are still where they were last week. Averages however have a tail in how they weight polls.
If we change the questions to a broader picture for what is most important: the outlook for Democratic control of the Senate hasn't changed.
It still appears to be a true 50/50 proposition. Whatever movement there may be in Donald Trump’s standing hasn’t meaningfully shifted the betting markets on the central question, who ultimately controls the Senate.
To me, this feels similar to the closing phase of the 2024 race, where Kamala Harris’s campaign showed clear gains but struggled to break past a final ceiling that would push the odds decisively above even.
Notably, the betting markets had Democrats at roughly 50/50 to take the Senate before the Iran-related developments, and they remain there afterward.
At the same time, in several individual races, Democrats have outperformed expectations. That raises the possibility that current models may be misreading the composition of the 2026 electorate—or who will actually turn out to vote.
IMO the big question is that since 38% to 40% looks to be Trumps base, are there enough voters in the 60% to flip the Senate in GOP dominated states.