In Reply to: I disagree posted by Bruins#1 on November 08, 2026 at 10:38:23
Bruins#1, I was thinking that scum's beating Indiana, followed by our smooshing scum at the Rose Bowl in 2.5 weeks would bump our strength of schedule, and help us in seeding. I think I have changed my mind about that, although I am not the math whiz mh is to prove it.
Two points.
First, on November 28, I figure that our position in the playoffs will be pretty well set, subject to whether we get to the B1G championship (odds favor us). A victory over a scum that beat Indiana vs one that didn't, or a loss to a scum either way will affect things a bit, but I expect that we're still in CFP. Maybe a seeding a bit higher or lower, but in.
Second, and more importantly, I think that our experience in the B1G championship is likely to be much more meaningful than the scum game. We control our destiny in the B1G championship. So long as we go at least 2-1 in the next three games (very good odds on that) we will be in the championship game. The odds are long on our opponent there being Indiana. Thus, I would generally expect that whatever change in seeding we would get in the CFP would be unaffected by scum's experience with Indiana.
Here's why. Just so I don't have to do this four ways, assume that we beat scum and Indiana. You can do the other relationships in your head. First, assume scum beats Indiana. Our victory over both ought to equate to some boost (or at least support) in seeding in the CFP. The scum victory would count for more and the Indiana victory would count for less. Second, assume Indiana beats scum. Our victory over scum would count less and our victory over Indiana more.
As a philosophical matter (not a mathematical one - I haven't done the math), I would expect that the changes in the value of victory in these two games would generally offset under the alternatives of who wins the scum/Indiana game. mh, you want to weigh in here?
Of course, this analysis gets much more complex if we win one and lose one. In that case, I expect that we'd like to beat the victor of scum/Indiana, so that the value of the win was higher and the cost of the loss lower.
Thoughts, comments, brickbats?
Just to be clear, any day that includes a scum defeat is better than one without, even if the day with the scum defeat includes both a colonoscopy and the outcome of an IRS audit. I'm just trying to philosophize without actually doing the hard work of the mathematics.