my sense is that Ucla thinks it can get ED to return for a modest NIL amount.
I think there is a risk of losing ED if he perceives he's being low-balled, or not being paid market value. I realize many don't think highly of ED. But to my eye, he did have some nice flashes of smooth shooting, etc, etc, especially here at the end of the season. (The recency effect is real.)
I think a lot of coaches are "half full" guys who believe in their own ability to get the best out of players that other coaches haven't been able to, and that if a guy can do something great a few times, then he's capable of doing great things a LOT of the time. Competing programs are probably willing to bet on a guy who has shown SOME capacity to be highly effective, vs a guy who's never done it in college but had a rep coming out of HS.
That said, ED is a player who might fall into a damned if do or if don't category for Ucla.
He's probably not good enough to elevate the 26/27 Ucla team to an Elite 8 spot and 30+ wins if he comes back. If he does come back, and he does help the team meet expectations, then it's all good.
But if Ucla loses him, then the chances of being an Elite 8 team that wins 30+ games takes a hit. The general sense is that the Ucla program needs as much continuity as it can get, because Mick has a poor track record of gelling teams quickly. (The realization that continuity is essential gives the players a lot of negotiating leverage if they choose to use it.)
If ED does leave, then the hope is that Ucla replaces him with a superior player/players that not only plugs his production, but exceeds it.
Kinda like Ucla fan hoped that Booker and Jamerson, combined, would exceed Mara's projected 2026 production because they had twice as many fouls to give and could play 40 mins per game (in total) pretty easily, while Mara would be able to only give 30 mins at most.
I don't think it worked out the way Ucla fan wanted it to, but every situation is different. The ED situation is the most dramatic of the off-season, IMO, outpacing Trent Perry's decision.