In Reply to: WBB: Everything you need to know before UCLA vs Ohio State posted by mh on December 27, 2025 at 11:20:10
each team has scored and given up, and their rebounding, and it looks like it should be a close game.
UCLA scores 87.6 ppg to 87.3 for tOSU.
UCLA gives up 55.3 ppg to 59.4 by tOSU.
UCLA gets 44.7 rebounds to 41.9 for tOSU.
But in reality the two teams aren't anywhere near that close.
UCLA averages more than 129 points per 100 possessions (#2 in D1) because they shoot 37% (#29) from three and 59% (#5) inside the arc. At the same time, they hold their opponents to 39% eFG (#20). The Bruins pull down 44% (#6) of their offensive rebound opportunities while grapping 75% (#27) of their opponents' misses.
Ohio State, by comparison, averages only 106 points per 100 possessions (#34), 23 points less than UCLA, because they manage only 28% (#247) from three, even though they make a respectable 56% (#14) of their twos. They allow 41% eFG (#41). They grab only 36% (#77) of their own misses while pulling down about 70% (#111) on their opponents' glass.
The Buckeyes ARE good at turning over their opponents, getting the ball back 31% of the time (#13). But the Bruins, despite their loosy goosy reputation, turn the ball over only 17% of the time (#19), so tOSU can't count on a lot of easy points that way.
The reason the counting numbers are so close, belying the Buckeye's deficiencies, is while the Bruins average 67 possessions per game, tOSU averages about 11 more possessions at 78.
As noted, Jaloni Cambridge is the straw that stirs their tomato juice (the official state beverage), averaging over 19 points per game and using 30% of the Buckeye's possessions. Even though she's only 5-7, 98 of her 191 (51%) made baskets are at the rim. I just don't see her being able to do that consistently against 6-7 Lauren Betts, and a team where every player is at least 4 inches taller than her, except for good luck charm Megan Grant, who is only 3 inches taller than Cambridge, but would still probably knock her over the Easton Feild fence if Cambridge tried taking it to the rim over Grant.
The problem for Cambridge, and tOSU, is that if she can't score at the rim, the three point line isn't an option since she's shooting only 14%, making 5 of 36 shots.
Bart Torvik gives UCLA a 16 point edge and 92% chance of winning. Despite this being a true road game, considering Cambridge's limitations noted above, I don't think it will be that close.